Can Senate Pass ObamaCare?

That's the big question on everybody's mind, isn't it... Is it possible for the Dems to pass their ObamaCare bill in the Senate? Liberals will reply heatedly that of course it is, and assert we're just being silly, engaging in wishful thinking, or maybe even cast aspersions upon our character for daring to think otherwise. Depending on the individual, of course.

But when we look at what happened Saturday, we find that things aren't so rosy after all. After all the debating and amending is over, liberals need 60 votes to pass their ObamaCare bill, and they have... precisely 60 votes in their caucus. Assuming the Republicans remain unanimously opposed, liberals need ALL of the Democrat Senators to vote "yea."

On the Republican side, Olympia Snowe is still a wild card. She voted against opening debate, that's true, but she may still vote in favor of closing debate at a future time.

On the Democrat side, let's look at the swing votes.


Joe Leiberman is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats. He voted to begin debate, but said that he is opposed to the so-called "public option" and will vote "nay" on any plan that includes one.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/1109/Lieberman_holds_fast_on_public_option.html?showall

Blanche Lincoln has stated that she also opposes the "public option," and added that she would not vote in favor of the bill as currently written. Mary Landrieu said much pretty much the same thing.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29795.html

The fourth swing vote belongs to Ben Nelson, who said that he also would vote no on the bill as it currently is written. He doesn't like the "opt-out" plan but might support an "opt-in" version. Also, he thinks that the bill doesn't do enough to control costs.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/1109/Nelson_would_vote_no_on_bill_as_is.html?showall

So there you have it, four Democrats who basically oppose a public option and say they won't vote for it. And the extreme-liberal wing has already signaled they'll vote against any bill WITHOUT a public option.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29798.html

So, what to do? Is it possible for the centrist Democrats and the rabid left-wing Democrats to reach a single plan they can all support?

Personally, I think that it is more than possible for a bill to pass, I think it is likely. And it has little to do with what Senators can "support." It all comes down to the carrot and the stick.

In the House, several representatives were essentially bribed to vote yes, and what they were offered had little to do with healthcare. Basically, the party in power has a great ability to offer funding for unrelated pet projects in order to convince a realcitrant Congressman to vote "yea"... and they're not shy about doing it.

On the "stick" side of the equation, anybody caucusing with the Democrats who opposes this bill could see choice committee memberships pass them by... punishment for not toeing the party line. And Blanche Lincoln is facing a strong Democrat challenger in next year's election... one whom the party has said they may well endorse INSTEAD of Lincoln if she votes "nay."

I think the combination of rewards for conformity and punishments for opposition will prove too powerful for most, if not all, of the Democrats now in opposition to the bill. They'll end up voting in favor of closure, giving the liberals their 60 votes.

I also think that many of the Democrats who DO vote "yea" will face angry voters next year and end up back in civilian life. But that's beside the point.

Don't pin your hopes on those four Democrats who are opposed... they may not have the stomach for this fight.

UPDATE: It seems as if the Washington Post agrees with the majority of my analysis.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/22/AR2009112202229.html