Can Repubs Get 41 In Senate?

I'm not asking this question about the 2010 fall elections, but rather about the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to fill Kennedy's seat. Does Republican candidate Scott Brown stand a chance to beat Democrat Martha Coakley?

The short answer is that it is possible, but not likely. If the RNC spends money on the GOTV effort it will probably help, but how much is (as always) unclear.

First, Massachusetts is a state from which few Republicans are elected to Congress. Those who do win election, however, seem to win in special elections... such as the one in January. So this point is a wash.


Second, Coakley is a well-known politician with name recognition, while Brown is essentially unknown to the majority of the electorate. Name recognition matters a lot, and Coakley has the advantage there.

Third, the makeup of the electorate itself favors the Democrat, though independents do make up almost a plurality of voters. The latest figures we have shows that the Massachusetts electorate was 43% Democratic, 17% Republican and 40% Independent during the 2008 Presidential election. The GOP would need a massive surge of independents in order to win the seat... more than what was seen in recent special elections in New Jersey and Virginia where two-thirds of independents voted for the GOP candidate. If that takes place here, the numbers show the election could play out with a 56% - 44% victory for the Democrat. Close, but no cigar. But that brings up point number four...

Fourth, turnout may well favor the GOP in this special election. Brown is running an aggressive campaign while Coakley is not. For Democrats, this is just another special election, but for Republicans this is the magic 41st vote in the Senate... expect higher turnout for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents than for Democrats. And in a low-turnout special election, such as this one is expected to be, the 2008 demographics may be completely irrelevant here.

What the GOP must do to win that election is to funnel money into GOTV efforts... calls and postcards reminding people to vote. Transportation for those who have trouble making the trip. Make sure those who NEED absentee ballots GET them. Some TV commercials to increase Brown's profile wouldn't be a bad idea, but since the idea is to mobilize motivated supporters, such ads aren't strictly necessary. Turnout, however, IS. If the GOP can motivate people to vote on the January 19, then they have a chance to capture that seat. Otherwise, odds are good that Coakley takes it.

Which brings me back to my initial point: a GOP victory in Massachusetts is NOT out of the question, but it is a long-shot. Democrats have all the advantages going into the election, and it'll take a lot of money and last-minute work to pull this one out.