Somewhat to their dismay, that same poll one week later shows 50% opposing the law and 47% favoring it.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0310/about_that_poll_1834923c-21db-4bba-8e45-17a81a763935.html
"There was on the Democratic side a burst of enthusiasm after it passed saying, 'Ah, now voters are being won over,' " says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies polling. "The cumulating data this past seven days says that, no, a miracle didn't happen and the public didn't suddenly change their views on this. It means that the Democrats still face a tough sell of a public close to evenly divided on this and even slightly more opposed than in favor, and that difficulty didn't go away with passage."
A one-day poll taken immediately after a major event is subject not only to sampling error but also to very short-term effects, he says. On the day after the bill passed, he notes, "the news cycle was dominated by the positive side of the story and only a bit by the Republicans' rebuttal to that."
Yes, Democrats enjoyed a short-term boost from passage, but continued polling indicates that the miracle they told Congressional Democrats to depend on hasn't yet materialized.

I will offer this observation...if by the first of June...the Democrats haven't gained a good five-percent back on their polls...they'd have to be very worried. With both Cap&Trade and Immigration Reform set to be the Spring and Summer topics to discuss (NOT jobs)...I think the polls won't improve very much.
ReplyDeleteFor southern Democrats...it could be a really hot and bad summer. Backers who usually funnel money for campaigns may just give up early and say this year is a wash...which would really tear the heart out of this year's campaign and election.