Analysis Of Yesterday's Elections

Four states held primaries and special elections yesterday. I covered some of the results last night. Even though everybody under the sun will be talking about those elections today, we'll look at and analyze the results. Let's start by looking at the big four races.

Rand Paul, son of former Presidential candidate Ron Paul, won his primary battle against his GOP-backed opponent. It was a strong win in Kentucky, 58.8% to 35.4%, and sends a strong message to GOP leaders that the electorate doesn't want the kind of candidates that they do. This is being touted as a "Tea Party" win. Whether it's that or not, I don't know... but a good thing is a good thing, regardless of what you call it.

In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln (D) was unable to avoid a runoff, and she must now face Bill Halter in a two-way race. This is an important result, as it indicates a hard road ahead for incumbents this year... bearing out earlier messages that were similar.


One of the top two stories of the night, though, was Arlen Specter's loss to Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. As you'll recall, Specter switched from the Republican party to the Democrat party because he knew he'd lose his Republican primary. So he switched... and promptly lost his Democrat primary. It couldn't happen to a more deserving guy. See ya, Specter... and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Now for the special election results. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz easily defeated his Republican opponent. Even though Democrats have held on to the seat, at least until November when they have to do this AGAIN, they shouldn't crow with triumph quite yet. Why not? Well, Obama didn't endorse or campaign for Critz, and Critz didn't ask him to. In fact, Critz distanced himself from Obama. And he also distanced himself from Congressional Democrats by announcing he didn't like all that they were doing. He even came out and said that if HE'D been in office at the time, he would have voted AGAINST ObamaCare!

In other words, Critz won by painting himself as separate and different from the Democrats' agenda. So it doesn't say a lot about those Democrat incumbents who have to defend their health care votes in the fall.

Now let's look at the rest of the races. With the exception of Specter, every incumbent on the ballot won his party's nomination... though in most cases that candidate was unopposed. Although... in Arkansas, not a single Democrat won his Senate race, and all will head to a runoff election.

So what does all this mean? Well, if anybody was looking for crystal clarity, they didn't get it yesterday. On the GOP side, Paul's win shows how far from the electorate the GOP leadership has gotten. Specter's defeat was only poetic justice, and should alarm the HECK out of any other party switchers who still have to run. (Do you hear that, Parker Griffith?)

And Critz's win shows that Democrat candidates can win by... promising not to do what Congressional Democrats are in the process of doing. Probably NOT what Democrats wanted to hear...