Meet Dr. James Hansimian, who this year will attempt to use his own rigorous method to produce a prediction that is AT LEAST as good as NOAA's.
If the player doesn't work, try this link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faDJzjbTfd4&feature=player_embedded
The folks over at the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) have decided to challenge NOAA's abysmal track record.
Yes, they fully realize this is, at best, an indictment of NOAA's accuracy, but think about it for a minute. If the NOAA can't even predict hurricanes over a six month period, how can we trust any long-term (25-100 years) forecasts on the effects of "global warming?"
Here is NCPPR's write-up of this challenge:
http://www.nationalcenter.org/PR_Hurricane_Forecast_051810.html
"If, at the end of the hurricane season, Dr. Hansimian's forecast turns out to be more accurate than NOAA's, we challenge the agency to make him an honorary member of NOAA's hurricane specialists unit," said David Ridenour. "In return, if NOAA's forecast is more accurate, we'll include a prominently-displayed mea culpa on our website."
So... we'll check back after hurricane season is over.
This hurricane business is all based on models. It's like global warming and tornado models. You have a thousand variables and you run a fancy computer program to say the "odds". Then you put on a tie and suit to look good...and pronounce judgement.
ReplyDeleteOut there somewhere...is some kid at Auburn university and he's working on a model for alcohol consumption in Bama dry counties. In the same fashion...there's a thousand variables...and he's hoping this gets him a "A" for the project. Later, he'll sell this to Baptist group who will provide weekly forecasts over their concerned areas of Bama and send out crisis actions teams.
That's true, Ripley. The point they're trying t omake is that none of the models are good enough to accurately predict a single hurrican season with any degree of accuracy. Why should we believe that other models can predict climate change 25 or more years into the future?
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