And it appears as if Congressional approval is at it's lowest rating since 1982.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/128120/Satisfaction-Historically-Low-Midterm-Year.aspx
So, what does this mean for Democrats this year?
So far in 2010, an average of 23% of Americans have been satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That is well below the 40% historical average Gallup has measured since 1979, when it began asking this question. The 2010 average is also the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.
Satisfaction with the way things are going is a key indicator to watch leading up to Election Day in November. Low satisfaction ratings have typically been associated with greater net seat change between parties in Congress in midterm election years, as was the case for the 1982, 1994, and 2006 elections. In each of those years, the average satisfaction rating was no higher than 33%. In 1994 and 2006, as is the case this year, the same party controlled the presidency and Congress heading into the elections, and party control of Congress changed hands after Election Day.
In years with higher satisfaction ratings, such as 1986 and 1998, the number of congressional seats changing parties was low.
In other words, they have a strong potential to lose a LOT of seats, because Congressional approval for this mid-term election is lower than it has been for the past 30 years... and the Democrats are the party in charge.
If we could steer some of those "lost seats" to somebody other than Republicans, I'd be happier... I have little faith the Republicans will sincerely try to do better. But we'll have to take what we can get, I guess. And if the price of Democrats losing power is Republicans GAINING it (and it is), then that's the price we must pay.
I still have serious doubts that the Democrats will lose control of either chamber, I am starting to equate this election more and more with 1982 rather than 1994 as the GOP would like. The economic indicators mirror each other with that election much more than 1994.
ReplyDeleteI think that it's not easy to forecast this year, as the signs are mixed. There are indicators the elections won't be bad for Dems, and there are other indicators it will be bad indeed. We'll have to wait and see.
ReplyDelete