Does Early Voting Show Enthusiasm Gap?

There's been a lot of talk about the "enthusiasm gap" that we'll see next week, with a lot more Republicans voting than Democrats. But is this true? One way we can get a possible (though not entirely accurate) glimpse into the future is to look at "early voting" to see who is and is not voting.

Early voting is absentee votes, like we have in Alabama, and by-mail voting (Oregon) or "early voting precincts" (North Carolina). We can get an idea of who is and isn't voting by looking at the voter registration of those who have voted early. Note that party registration isn't an actual vote for a candidate, and people can easily vote across party lines. So this isn't a look at who is GETTING the votes, just who is CASTING the votes.

So, let's take a look and see if this "enthusiasm gap" exists in early voting.


Republicans are out-voting Democrats in Colorado (41.%-36.5%), Florida (52.8%-33.7%), and Nevada (42.5%-42.4%). By the way, the independent turnout for those states is 21%, 13.5%, and 15.1%, respectively... enough to matter in two of those states.

But Democrats are out-voting Republicans in Iowa (45.9%-38.1%), Louisiana (46.0%-43.6%), Maine (37.1%-37.0%), Maryland (63.8%-27.4%), North Carolina (44.3%-38.2%), and West Virginia (55.0%-35.3%). The independent turnout for those states is 16.0%, 10.4%, 26.0%, 8.8%, 17.5%, and 9.6%, respectively... enough to matter in four of those states.

So, in those states that have early-voting, register voters by party, and report their turnout by party affiliation prior to the election day (only 11 states), six are seeing heavier turnout from Democrats and three are seeing heavier turnout from Republicans.

Let me caution you again on drawing too many conclusions from this. First, these are people who voted, and this tells us nothing about which candidate they voted for. Second, this is data concerning only 11 states, which is too small a sample to draw national conclusions from... especially considering liberal-leaning states seem to be over-represented in this sample.

That said, I see little evidence of a nation-wise "enthusiasm gap" in these figures. It's going to depend on how many people cross-vote, as well as on how independents vote. You can see that, in several of the states, Democrats and Republicans are very close in their turnout (Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Nevada, and North Carolina), with a sizable percentage of registered independents who will almost certainly decide those elections.

If you'd like to see these statistics in more depth, you can find them at the following location:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

The site updates its figures as the states release new data, so check back periodically to see how early turnout is shaping up.

UPDATE: Keep in mind I'm talking about only the party affiliation of those voting early, not the actual votes. Yes, I'm aware that more recent polls show a widening GOP lead... that's different, and I'll look at it later.