Me On HuffPost: Roby Becoming More Likely To Win

Another story of mine was posted on the Huffington Post. You can find it online here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-givens/martha-robys-chances-of-v_b_771350.html

However, they trimmed this one way down, so "below the fold" I will post the entire piece as I submitted it.


Martha Roby’s chances of winning improve

The 538 Blog with the New York Times released an updated look at the Alabama District 2 House race between incumbent Bobby Bright (D) and challenger Martha Roby (R). The latest projection gives Roby a 76.5% chance of winning the November election. Their projected margin is Roby winning with 51.9% of the vote to Bright’s 45.9% of the vote.




Though the polls monitored by 538 show Bright still in the lead, they factor in many other variables to reach their projections. Items such as district demographics, past voting history of the District, and recent momentum in polling data and fundraising all play a part in their analysis.

A separate analysis of the race by ElectionProjection.com shows Roby winning by 0.2% of the vote.

As the election nears, we see more signs that Roby is pulling ahead in her attempt to replace Bright as Alabama’s Congressman from District 2.