I was looking at the polling data today to determine which of the GOP candidates for President could beat Obama in the general election, and discovered a little nugget of truth. The top three candidates who would fare best against Obama in the general election are Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney... and Ron Paul.
Don't believe me? See for yourself.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
Though ALL GOP contenders trail Obama at this point, these three are the closest to Obama in the polls. Huckabee is only down by 2.2 points, Romney is down by 3.6, and Paul is down by 7.5 points.
Of the three, Huckabee hasn't announced his candidacy and, indeed, is showing some signs he may not run at all. Romney has BIG negatives with the GOP primary crowd, notably RomneyCare, the blueprint for the detested ObamaCare. Which puts Ron Paul pretty well positioned to beat Obama in the general election. He's third in line for viability... second in line, if you omit Huckabee because he hasn't announced yet.
Paul beats out other candidates in the general election, such as Daniels (-9.4), Huntsman (-10.5), Trump (-12.2), Barbour (-12.5), Pawlenty (-14.4), Palin (-15.2), Gingrich (-15.2), and Bachmann (-15).
So, if you've ever dismissed Ron Paul as "unable to win in the general election," maybe you might want to rethink that. He polls higher than all but two other possible candidates... one of whom may not even BE a candidate.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
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It's regrettable, but the Republican party leadership, as well a mainstream media, will work their tails off to ensure that Paul doesn't win the Republican nomination in order to talk circles around Obama in general election debates.
ReplyDeleteMitt is definitely the best general election candidate of the ones presumed to be running at this point, but will indeed face a tough primary challenge. In his favor is the tide of history which basically points his direction post 1964.
ReplyDeleteTal, my problem with Romney is that the thing he considers his biggest accomplishment was RomneyCare, which was the blueprint for ObamaCare. So he truly believes that government regulation and control of a market is essential to it's functioning properly. That's not the position of a person who I would vote for.
ReplyDeleteLet the fat lady sing: Huck can only win in the south and is a 2-star debate 'king'. Mitt could carry out a four-star debate, but he wins mostly a couple of New England states and a couple Ohio-valley states....with no one in the south willing to vote for a Mormon. Palin? Half of the Republican crowd just can't take her serious, and she can barely out-debate Huck....so she might take eight states against Obama at best. Christie isn't ready for prime-time. Governor Tim (Pawlenty)....is good governor material but he really can't debate and he's not the type to take any southern states. Newt might be a five-star debate guy, but he has no leadership style and most independents won't take him serious. Mitch Daniels can't win in more than six states...and is a 2-star debate guy at best. Bachmann is mostly VP material at best and can't deliver anything beyond an average speech. Jon Huntsman is great VP material and is likely to be the chosen one for that position for whoever wins.
ReplyDeleteTrump? He's not running for Republican candidacy. He's saving his money and time to run against both Obama and the Republican candidate. It stands to reason that most independents will drift toward him and he could actually take New York state, New Jersey, and maybe Vermont. The problem for Obama is that without a New York electoral college situation...and a half-way decent Republican run....none of the three could achieve enough votes to win the electoral college, and thus trigger a rare event where it all gets pushed into the Senate between the top two winners.
I'm not a Trump supporter, but I would speculate that Trump has figured out that no serious Democratic run in the spring primary season....leaves all these Democrats throughout America available to vote in Republican primaries and trigger seven different potential winners to argue all the way to the convention, with no happy Republican public in August and September. So Trump gains those disgruntled voters and his independents. In an amusing way, Trump has figured out the Obama plan and just wants to make things a bit interesting next November.