http://dailycaller.com/2011/12/13/in-iowa-paul-closes-to-within-one-point-of-front-runner-gingrich/
Texas Rep. Ron Paul has surged to second place in a new Iowa poll of likely Republican caucus goers, just one percent behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the current front-runner.
Paul has consistently placed in the top tier of Republican presidential candidates in recent Iowa polls. With Iowans heading to vote in only three weeks, Gingrich holds a razor-thin 22–21 lead.
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, found weakening support for Gingrich among self-identified tea partiers, and a dramatic rise in Paul’s favorability rating.
So, this means what? Not much. Candidates are proving very volatile this election season, surging rapidly and then falling behind again. Newt surged, what... two weeks ago? And he already shows signs of sagging support. So if Paul is beginning to surge three weeks out, it could mean he's going to take the Iowa straw poll, or it could mean he'll start to sag just before they are held.
Who knows? All I know is that those who learn about Paul's positions instead of listening to critics' interpretations of them seem to like him a lot. We'll see what happens.
Oh, and one lesson? Ignore the media when they tell you who is and isn't "electable." Also ignore them when they try to tell you who is the "likely" nominee. This election cycle seems more volatile than normal, and all bets are off.
UPDATE: Polls from New Hampshire show Paul beginning to move upwards there, too. Since the previous month's poll, Romney slipped one point from 34% to 33%, Newt slipped two points from 24% to 22%, and Paul moved up 4 points from 14% to 18%. He's now within the margin of error for second place Newt in New Hampshire... though barely.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary
0 comments:
Post a Comment