Okay, I haven't made any predictions here on the results of the Iowa caucuses. As I sit here, with the first results coming in, I see Paul has 23.8%, Romney has 23.7%, and Santorum has 22.8%.
I've seen the polls, and I am seeing the early results. It is my opinion, based upon the polls, early results, and the "firmness" of the poll results, that Paul wins this with 30% or better of the vote. In the polls, 50% or more of those who said they'd vote for Paul were firm in their choice. With Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum, only 15% - 20% of their supporters were firm. So I think Paul is under-polling and will end up with a higher percentage than the polls would lead you to believe.
That's my prediction... we'll take a look at the numbers tomorrow morning and see how it went.
One observation, though. The news media is bending over backwards to ignore the Paul numbers. I'm hearing explanations of why it doesn't matter, and I've even heard some commentators talking about how the Iowa results are meaningless.
We didn't hear this until Paul began taking the lead, now we hear it everywhere. The amount of rationalization needed here is pretty high, and I can't help but think many reporters and political figures will be clocking time with their analysts tomorrow. (grin)
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
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Was Huckabee one of the people claiming Iowa Caucus doesn't matter? Cause he should know. Also, you should work on your prediction skills. Paul finished third with only 21%.
ReplyDeleteHeh... never claimed I made ACCURATE predictions. (grin)
ReplyDeleteJust watch, the same people who were saying that Iowa didn't matter if Paul won will now say it really DOES matter now that he took third.
Obviously, my prediction was incorrect. I remain convinced that Dr. Paul can win the general election, and I think he will continue to earn delegates as the primaries continue.
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